As we all fill out our NCAA Tournament brackets in hopes of earning some cash or gaining bragging rights with friends, there's a lot more that goes into it than simply choosing one team over the other.
From taking into account trends in previous tournaments to checking out just how many mid-majors have a real opportunity to advance past the first weekend, here are seven NCAA Tournament bracket tips you must know before submitting your final bracket this week.
1. Go away from the grain, pick some upsets
Is Indiana likely to handle Chattanooga come Thursday in Des Moines? Yes. But don't be afraid to pick the smaller school in similar matchups. Heck, the Hoosiers have proven they can be vulnerable against inferior competition as evidenced by losses to Michigan, Penn State and and Wake Forest on the year.
What about the fourth-seeded Iowa State Cyclones taking on all-everything guard A.J. English and the 13th-seeded Iona Gaels? Just because t hat program has not won a single tournament game since 1979-80, it doesn't mean you should sleep on them.
Looking at the four regions, there are a ton of upsets to be had. Losers of 10 games this season, the defending champion Duke Blue Devils will take on what promises to be a game North Carolina-Wilmington team in Rhode Island on Thursday. Could Coach K and Co. go one and done?
Staying in the west region for a second, don't be surprised if a 14th-seeded Green Bay team gives Texas A&M all it can handle. The same can be said with San Diego State potentially acting as a Cinderella against what's supposed to be a top-end Maryland team in the south region.
In a season where upsets have been the name of the game, we can expect a whole bunch more during the first three rounds of the tournament this week. Don't be one of those people who are afraid to go out on a limb.
2. Understand that at least one top seed won't make it out of the first weekend
It likely won't happen during the second round of the tourney on Thursday or Friday, but it's bound to occur this week. One of the top-four seeds in the entire tournament will go down on the first weekend of action.
It's happened in each of the past three years, last season with North Carolina State beating a top-seeded Villanova team in the Round of 32.
Our money is on the weakest of the four No. 1 seeds heading into the week, Oregon. The Ducks will have to take on either St. Josephs or Cincinnati should they win in the second round against an unnamed opponent.
All six of Oregon's losses this season have come against un-ranked teams, including road losses to Boise State, Stanford and Oregon State. That tells us a story of a team that plays down to the level of competition.
Meanwhile, North Carolina could very well be vulnerable back east. It faces a potentially difficult matchup against Kris Dunn and the Providence Friars in Round 3 should the latt er take out Southern California on Thursday in Raleigh.
3. Check in on mid-majors
The selection committee definitely wasn't friendly to mid-majors looking for at-large bids with St. Mary's, Monmouth and Valparaiso all left out of the field. This promises to give other smaller schools more incentive to defeat programs from power conferences.
It happens every single season. Multiple lower-seeded small-school teams advance to the first weekend of action, and sometimes, to the Sweet 16. It never fails. So who are those we should check in on this year?
Northern Iowa has already handled North Carolina and Iowa State this season, both of whom were ranked in the top five at the time of the game. What's to stop the Panthers and guard Wes Washpun from ousting the sixth-seeded Texas Longhorns in the second round? Heck, a potential Round of 32 matchup against Texas A&M could be in Northern Iowa's favor as well.
Staying in the west region, the aforementioned Texas A&M Aggies will face a difficult second-round matchup against what promises to be a game Green Bay team that ranked sixth in the nation in scoring during the regular season. The 14th-seeded Phoenix seem primed to upset Texas A&M.
San Diego State vs Maryland, Chattanooga vs Indiana and Iona vs Iowa State are also potential upsets in games that feature mid-majors against power conference schools.
4. SEC is overrated, period
Speaking of Texas A&M, they were just one of two SEC teams to earn a spot in the tournament. That's an amazingly low number for a power conference. It also tells us a story of two teams, Texas A&M and Kentucky, that might not be as battle tested as they would like.
Speaking of Kentucky, they will start the tourney against what might be a difficult game against Stony Brook before potentially taking on a good Indiana team during the weekend. The Wi ldcats played just three games against top-25 teams during the regular season, losing to Kansas while defeating Duke and Louisville.
In fact, Kentucky has played a total of four games against teams that earned a spot in the tourney, including just one in the SEC postseason tournament.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M lost five conference games during the regular year. That's not necessarily a good trend considering just how bad the SEC was this year.
5. Don't sleep on those west-coast teams
From Oregon and California to Gonzaga and Fresno State, there are multiple teams out on the west coast that could go far in the tournament.
By virtue of its dominating performance against Utah in the Pac 12 title game, Oregon heads into the tournament as one of the top-four seeds in the nation. It does so with freshman guard Tyler Dorsey playing at a really high level.
Meanwhile, a bit further south, CAL enters the tournament as on e of the most-talented teams in the nation. Can freshmen Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown extend their college careers into next month prior to being likely top-10 picks in the upcoming draft?
A perennial Final 4 contender, Gonzaga boasts a tandem in Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis that can go up against any other front-court duo in the nation.
One of these teams is likely going to end up playing in a regional final, at which point anything becomes possible. And in reality, that team could very well be CAL — a squad that could shock the nation over the next few weeks.
6. Know the most vulnerable seeds
Outside of the top-three seeds in each region, let's not even look at where each team is seeded. Instead, we need to look at the point spreads and history itself when it comes to these matchups.
An example of this would be No. 11 seeds taking on sixth seeds. Over the course of the past three tournaments, the lower seed has won five of a po ssible 12 games. That bodes extremely well for Northern Iowa and Gonzaga, among others.
Last year saw three No. 13 seeds take top-four seeds to the brink of second-round elimination, including Harvard's two-point loss to North Carolina. Back in 2013, a 13-seeded La Salle team defeated a fourth-seeded Kansas State squad. This history tells us a story of teams like CAL, Duke, Kentucky and Iowa State having something to worry about this week.
More than anything, 10th seeds have had the most success against "superior" competition. Ohio State took out Virginia Commonwealth last season with New Mexico falling in 2014 and Notre Dame losing in 2013. Overall, 10th seeds have won a second round game in each of the past eight tournaments.
The most-probable "upset" here would be the Virginia Commonwealth over Oregon State. Though, there's a decent chance that more than one 10th seed comes out on top in the second round.
7. If you are going to pick upsets, go wi th 10th, 11th and 12th seeds
According to NCAA.com, 76 percent of second-round upsets are by teams slotted in these three seeds. This plays into what we were talking about above. In fact, over one quarter of second-round upsets are by 12th seeds. This bodes well for Yale, San Diego State, Chattanooga and Arkansas Little-Rock, all of whom have really good chances to come out on top Thursday or Friday.
More than this, look at their potential third-round games. Is there anyone here that doesn't believe Chattanooga would be able to take out Kentucky should the two teams advance? What about Little-Rock over Iowa State should they both advance past Round 2?
